When John Bolton goes to sort the UN or when Ariel Sharon pulls out of Gaza, clever people nod sagely and say “only Nixon could have gone to China”. The same could be said of Hamas engaging with Israel in the peace process.
Having seemingly secured a resounding victory, Hamas have to choose between trying to form a proper government that is largely free of terrorist connections, or to form a governmental front for their terror operations, potentially pushing for all out war with Israel. A line may be walked between the two for a period, but there will be a getting off of the fence, and onto which side they jump is unknown – and may be partly in the hands of Israel herself.
I suspect Hamas will want to play ball, but be seen to do so on their own terms. They are happy to continue the ceasefire, but that´s not the same as ceasing to fire full stop. Chances are they´ll want to build up some sort of official Palestinian military beyond police forces which will give them a way of bridging the gap between violence and legitimacy, but I cannot see Israel permitting such a move, despite it being probably in their best interests to do so.
If Hamas recognise Israel and commit to the political process (at least for the time being), and get something back in return like less West Bank annexation by Sharon´s big wall, or the military option mentioned above, then there´s a chance. Sometimes with this sort of thing, nothing happens for ages, but Palestinian authorities are notoriously impatient and Hamas may want change fast, and with Israel being in a political no-man´s-land, this may not happen fast enough (Olmert certainly doesn´t have the political capital of his predecessor).
This leaves us in a quandary. Olmert won´t make big changes to what Israel is doing, he can really only hope to keep the ceasefire intact. This will not be enough for Hamas, that´s for certain, but one can take a certain amount of comfort from the fact that it seems stupid to resort to the terror of old Hamas when you have your hands on the levers of government. Let´s hope they´re patient enough to play the long game, for all our sakes.
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[...] There has been a great deal of rhetoric, both ideological and realist, since Hamas won the Palestinian Parliamentarian elections. Some welcome the result, arguing Hamas will shake up the peace process, bringing Tel Aviv back to the table. Other have condemned the result and labelled Hamas terrorists. [...]
[...] There has been a great deal of rhetoric, both ideological and realist, since Hamas won the Palestinian Parliamentarian elections. Some welcome the result, arguing Hamas will shake up the peace process, bringing Tel Aviv back to the table. Other have condemned the result and labelled Hamas terrorists. [...]
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