Iran: A measured response

Yesterday the Iranian supreme religious leader, and de facto emperor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a statement, which sought to rebuke US and European diplomatic pressure over its nuclear ambitions.

From the New York Times: -

“The West knows very well that we are not seeking to build nuclear weapons,” Ayatollah Khamenei said in a meeting with Tajikistan’s president, Emomali Rahmonov. “Nuclear weapons are against our political and economic interests and our Islamic beliefs. Therefore, the Islamic Republic will not fear the uproar and will continue the path of scientific progress relying on its principles, and the world cannot influence the will of our people.”

We can’t be sure of the ambitions of Iran; we can’t know if their scientists are in fact only developing peaceable technology for civilian energy requirements or toying with apocalyptic tools of war. What we can be sure of however is that we should be very sceptical of so-called intelligence reports and ideological rhetoric from our own governments and media.

If the British and American people take anything constructive from the Iraq adventure, let it be a healthy distrust of our politicians. We were assured of Iraq’s weapons of mass-destruction and yet over two years after President Bush declared “Mission Accomplished” aboard the USS Lincoln we have found little more than sand and strife.

It seems the stream of disinformation has already begun. This week Iran reversed a ban on news network CNN, after the channel apologised for misrepresenting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Farsi in a translation. It seems our ‘principled’ news providers can’t wait to send more kiddies off to fight the wars of those who have already got old, rich, and fat enough to buy their way into the seats of western power.

What no one has actually done, and this is astonishing considering the impact of invading Iraq, is address the effect of any military action on the global economy. We are already paying record high prices for our energy, and with a cold snap underway in Siberia (with Russia trimming supplies to its Eastern European neighbours) the demand for fossil fuels can only get higher. Iran is one of the largest exporters of oil (the second largest OPEC contributor, now Iraqi production is decimated) and is critical in ensuring supplies do not crash, which may lead to a global economic slowdown.

The west in reality actually has an interest in peaceful Iranian nuclear power. According to ambassador Mohammad Hossein Adeli, Iran will become a net importer of energy by 2024, as he explains in a comment piece in The Guardian, September of last year: -

Moreover, the west placed a big question mark over Iran’s legitimate right to access technology that would enable it to have a civilian programme aimed at building a nuclear power plant. According to a recent BP estimate, Iran will be an oil importer in 2024 if it continues to consume oil at present rates. This highlights the legitimate wish of the country to develop alternative sources of energy, including nuclear.

The question is not whether we should attack Iranian nuclear facilities, but whether we can afford to. Surely action, which would drive up the cost of fuel even higher, would be electoral suicide in the west.

The politicians are right to be worried, but one has to wonder how much real political capital they have left? Should we offset economic growth to geld another ‘rogue state?’ And are we sure they are actually seeking the bomb?

The hard-left would argue not. They would point at Iraq and claim that we can’t believe anything we are told by western governments. Now the gasworks is rightly cynical of the influence of the hawks in Washington and Westminster, but it is equally suspicious of the bunnie-lovers on the left. Regardless of CNN’s gaff it appears Ahmadinejad did demand that Israel be wiped off the map.

We must remember Iran’s proud roots. It was once a superpower, the heart of the Persian Empire, which had so much conflict with Classical Europe. Throughout the Middle Ages and into the time of the Ottomans the Islamic world had a champion, a bulwark against Christian dominance. Since Hiroshima, and certainly since the collapse of the Soviet Union, American hegemony has been unopposed. With Pakistan neutered under the unpopular General Musharraf, Islam has no powerbase, no champion. Iran is no friend of the Arab, but neither are the Americans popular on the Arab Street. A powerful and nuclearised Iran could command incredible influence throughout the Muslim World.

And this is what this is about. This is about brinkmanship. With Iraq’s fragmentation Tehran sees the opportunity for regional dominance and knows that only the bomb will give them credibility in world politics, such is the Bush administrations lack of diplomatic sophistication.

The current standoff can be traced to both the inexcusable Axis of Evil speech and the botched invasion of Iraq which has strengthened the hand of Iran. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is proving to be a combustible and dangerous complication in Middle East politics. One has to wonder, if the Mullahs are all-powerful, why are they allowing such outbursts; is Ahmadinejad a pawn?

It is safe to say that the overwhelming majority of Muslims in the region loathe American interference in the Middle East, and Iran knows that they would tentatively welcome an Islamic Champion that would challenge American hegemony and destabilise its regional surrogate Israel.

The Western Left should not be suckered into tolerating a character that demands the destruction of a sovereign state. The rise of this intolerant and destructive brand of Islam should be seen as the threat it is.

Let’s not romanticise Iran, it’s a totalitarian state; and with a nuclearised Israel to its west, Pakistan and India to its east, and Russia to its north, one can see why it feels it needs to go nuclear. I think Persian pride is welling. There is no way a confident Iran will allow itself to play second fiddle in regional influence – oil money flows and Tehran knows it will not last forever – now is the time to become a big player.

With external support Iran could go nuclear quickly. One wonders if Russia and China would like to see a nuclear Iran as a bulwark against American influence reaching eastward. The Bush administrations handling of diplomatic tensions is astonishing, it will rue its policy towards North Korea for a very long time. The precedent has been set: go nuclear and be taken seriously.

The policy of the West must be inclusion and engagement. We must convey to the Iranian people the virtues of living in a free and open society. Ostracising Iran’s leadership is doing nothing but strengthen their grip on power, consolidation support through nationalism.

The time for a return to a rational foreign policy has arrived. A policy not poisoned by the hawkish promises of quick and easy wars.

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